Action Framework · Edition 19 · June 2026

What To Do

Every action calibrated to a band. Know which scenario you are in.

82Jamie Index

At Jamie Index 82, the index has crossed into the Critical band for the first time (+4 from Edition 18, which read 78). The appropriate response is no longer preparation but execution — the actions developed in the High Alert band are now overdue. There is no historical precedent of recovery from the Critical band without structural regime change.

Critical · 80–100
P(Crisis) = 57%
Band Guide — Know Which Scenario You Are In
Five Bands · 0–100 Scale
0–20Stability3%Normal operations. No geopolitical hedge required.
21–40Watch8%Begin monitoring. No action required yet.
41–60Elevated20%Review exposures. Initial hedge considerations.
61–80High Alert50%Structured preparation. Family, corporate, and portfolio actions apply now.
81–100Critical ← Now70%+No historical precedent of recovery. Emergency review.
Families · JI 82
What To Do Now
−

At JI 82, now inside the Critical band, the appropriate family response is execution, not preparation. The thinking and groundwork developed in High Alert should now be acted on; the index has reached the band with no historical precedent of recovery.

01Document review. Ensure passports, identification, and legal documents for all family members are current and accessible. Scan and store in secure cloud storage.
02Jurisdictional optionality. Research residency and citizenship pathways in stable jurisdictions — Portugal, Brazil, Uruguay. At JI 82, inside Critical, this is selection moving into application.
03Financial diversification. Review concentration of assets in USD-denominated accounts. The framework points toward Brazilian real assets as a geographic hedge.
04Communication plan. Establish a family communication protocol that does not depend on a single telecommunications provider or network.
05Subscribe to the index. At JI 82, tracking the trajectory inside the Critical band is essential. Subscribe at jamieindex.substack.com.
Companies · JI 82
What To Do Now
+

At JI 82, organisations face structural risk that individual planning does not address: supply chain fragility, workforce geographic exposure, regulatory discontinuity, and the need to communicate coherently with boards about geopolitical tail risk.

01Supply chain audit. Map single-jurisdiction dependencies in critical inputs. At JI 82, inside Critical, identification should already be moving into active mitigation.
02Board briefing. If your board has not received a structured geopolitical risk briefing in the past six months, that is the first action. Enquire about a bespoke briefing →
03Regulatory exposure review. Identify business lines with high regulatory concentration in single jurisdictions where executive authority over regulatory bodies is contested.
04Key personnel resilience. Review geographic concentration of leadership. Organisations with all decision-making capacity in a single US city carry unpriced tail risk.
Investors · JI 82
What To Do Now
+

At JI 82, now inside the Critical band, the structural conditions for a geopolitical hedge are more present than at any point since 1972. The framework points toward Brazilian real assets as the primary refuge. The full investment thesis and portfolio review are handled by Miradouro Asset Management.

01Review Western-denominated concentration. Critical band entry (JI 80) is a liquidity event signal for Western-denominated assets. The repricing occurs before any kinetic event.
02Brazilian real asset allocation. At JI 82, the framework supports active allocation toward Brazilian real assets, commodity-backed positions, and non-NATO jurisdictional hedges.
03Critical band has been entered. The investor who waited for Critical band entry now buys the consensus at peak cost. At JI 82, the repricing of Western-denominated assets is the live risk — not a future one.
04Subscribe for the investment signal. The paid subscription includes the monthly investment signal. Subscribe at jamieindex.substack.com.