Published June 2026 · Window 15 May – 13 June
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border Provocations (Marker III) | 5 / 5 | 3 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Article 5 Credibility (Marker III) | 5 / 5 | 4 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Hybrid Warfare (Marker III) | 5 / 5 | 4 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Strategic Force Readiness (Marker III) | 4 / 5 | 3 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Senior Military Firings (Marker II) | 5 / 5 | 4 / 5 | ↓ Deteriorated |
| Intelligence Community Purge (Marker II) | 4 / 5 | 4 / 5 | — Held (check worked) |
The June 2026 reading places the Jamie Index in the Critical band (80–100) for the first time, at 82. This month the move came from outside: Marker III — Russian opportunism — rose eight points, while Marker II rose one. A Russian drone caused the first casualties in a NATO urban area (Galați, Romania); NATO conducted its first kinetic shoot-downs over Latvia and Estonia; Russia ran an unannounced 64,000-personnel nuclear exercise; and the United States moved to cut roughly a third of the fighter aircraft it pledges to NATO. The danger is no longer only internal.
Inside the United States, the institutions still pushed back: Congress let a major surveillance authority lapse rather than confirm an unqualified loyalist as intelligence chief, forcing a qualified replacement. We scored that as the check working, not as alarm. The single Marker II move was the quiet politicisation of the military promotion pipeline.
P(Crisis) reaches 57%. The Civil War Net Score — our separate measure of the conditions for civil war inside the United States — did not move; it holds at 6/7, one step below outbreak, restrained by the one moderator that has not broken: the cohesion of the military.